Break-Even Calculator
Compare two education paths side by side. See the exact year when the higher-cost option overtakes the lower-cost one - and how big the gap is at year 30.
Trade School
$
$
4-Year College
$
$
Year 19
4-Year College break-even
$254K
4-Year College ahead at year 30
4-Year College
Better lifetime ROI
Cumulative earnings over 30 years
Including training cost and salary growth (3%/yr). Assumes 0 earnings during training years.
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30
Trade School
4-Year College
| Year | Trade School | 4-Year College | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | -$10K | -$80K | $70K Trade School ahead |
| Year 2 | $34K | -$80K | $114K Trade School ahead |
| Year 3 | $79K | -$80K | $159K Trade School ahead |
| Year 4 | $126K | -$80K | $206K Trade School ahead |
| Year 5 | $174K | -$20K | $194K Trade School ahead |
| Year 6 | $224K | $42K | $182K Trade School ahead |
| Year 8 | $327K | $171K | $156K Trade School ahead |
| Year 10 | $437K | $308K | $129K Trade School ahead |
| Year 12 | $554K | $454K | $100K Trade School ahead |
| Year 15 | $742K | $688K | $53K Trade School ahead |
| Year 20 | +$1.1M | +$1.1M | $34K 4-Year College ahead |
| Year 25 | +$1.5M | +$1.6M | $136K 4-Year College ahead |
| Year 30 | +$2.0M | +$2.2M | $254K 4-Year College ahead |
Assumes 3% annual salary growth for both paths. Training years modeled as zero earnings. Does not account for taxes, investment returns, or non-financial factors. This is not financial advice.
How to use this calculator
Start with a preset. The three presets (trade vs. college, work now vs. school, bootcamp vs. CS degree) are pre-filled with real BLS salary data. Use them as starting points.
Customize your numbers. Enter your actual program costs, expected training duration, and realistic starting salary for each path. Use College Scorecard net price (not sticker price) for college costs.
What "break-even" means. The break-even year is when Path B's cumulative earnings finally surpass Path A's. Before that year, Path A is ahead. After that year, Path B takes the lead.
What this doesn't model. Investment returns on savings, taxes, non-salary income, benefits differences, or career mobility. The cumulative numbers are gross salary only.